MARKET WHY AI AUDIT DESK
한국어POLICY V1
PUBLIC CALIBRATION LEDGER

The misses stay visible.

Predictions, avoid calls, live trades, and conditional claims use separate denominatorsThe eligible claim set used to calculate a hit rate. Different claim types remain separate. so one flattering number cannot hide weak categories.

Directional predictions
100%
Resolved
1/3
Hits
1
Avoid decisions
100%
Resolved
6/7
Hits
6
Live trades
18%
Resolved
17/22
Hits
3
Conditional claims
—
Resolved
0/1
Hits
0
SCORING CONTRACT

Same claim type. Same rule.

prediction

Direction at maturity, with a neutral band around flat returns.

avoid

Scores whether avoiding the drawdown created value, not whether price merely moved.

live_trade

Target-before-stop, with the stop winning ties on the same bar.

conditional

Manual review until the trigger itself is explicitly observed.